I think I've talked to just about every dealership in the GTA (and slightly beyond) at this point. You will find the occasional Sienna coming in that isn't bought up yet which are still 2021 (ex. as of yesterday, Scarborough has an incoming red Limited that isn't sold). But for the most part, you'll be told to order one, and they are only ordering 2022's now, and the wait times have varied from 2-8 months depending on who you talk to. According to at least one dealership (Maple), 2022's are dropping within 2 months. That doesn't mean you'll get one in 2 months, it means those already ordered will get a 2022.
Other interesting tidbits from all the time I've spent chatting with dealers (which may or may not be true):
- I was told that many dealerships manipulate the wait list to sell to preferred customers first (ex. those buying accessories, extended warrantees, long leases...), which means your ordering first doesn't mean you'll get one first
- Don Valley North told me that up until last month they were actually catching up and shortening the wait list (meaning they were on track to eventually clear the backlog and have inventory), but the production cuts likely threw that out the window
- lots of Siennas (especially top trim AWD ones) are being bought up for re-export (to China), so much that Toyota Canada now requires buyer information be submitted to them to be vetted (I believe this one, there was an autotrader ad that was quickly taken down offering high commissions for anyone who can source Siennas, and I've also heard from more than one dealer in the past about China re-exports even before the re-design)
- within the GTA, there are dealerships who only sell at MSRP, those who add a dealership fee and mandatory extra (like rust proofing), and a few who are willing to order you one with a small discount; obviously seek out the ones who will discount