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Agree with your entire post except this part. We’re a hybrid economy with some parts free/unregulated, other parts managed solely by governments (federal and local), and most parts somewhere along a spectrum in between. We’re a hybrid market, at least according to the economics being taught.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/an...onsidered-market-economy-or-mixed-economy.asp Okay, I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong again. Although not totally free, we are far more so than many other markets. To the point that we, the consumers CAN walk away if we don't like the price. Which was my point. If enough choose to do this, it won't be very long at all until the sales manager looks out the window of his cushy office and says in his best Mr. Krabs voice "Where are the customers!?" when a midlevel employee busts in and yells "SIR! [competing dealer] JUST DROPPED ALL MARKUPS!" and the sales manager's mouth drops open, his cigar falling to the ground. "Damnit! Drop all incentives and put up a sign saying we'll beat any quote on any vehicle!" And just like that, the nonsense will be over.
 

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My .02, Sienna is more of a wish than a need for most people. Also, more than enough people are fortunate enough to have more money than they know what to do with it. If they indulge and spend a bit more, that is perfectly OK. I personally wouldn't refer anyone who does that by less than respectful words. If everyone is required to pinch every penny, we all would be living in a two bedroom apartment and driving a corrola.
 

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2022 toyota sales data shows Sienna dropped 35% in sales/production from 2021-2022 EOY. The Highlander hybrid also similarly dropped 33%. Thats the main cause of the price bubble. With high interest rates - the demand should have dropped by now. Dealers will continue to get as much as they can from the very few Siennas\Highlander HVs they get allocated. Cant blame them too much. They are just trying to survive like us. It sounds bad but we are partly to blame too.
 

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2022 toyota sales data shows Sienna dropped 35% in sales/production from 2021-2022 EOY. The Highlander hybrid also similarly dropped 33%. Thats the main cause of the price bubble.
You're suggesting decreased demand as the proximal cause of those decreased sales volumes / numbers, whereas the data I see shows decreased supply as the more fitting reason.

They can't sell what they can't build, and they can't build what they can't source from parts suppliers.

That makes much more sense as an explanation for less robust sales numbers to my mind than suggesting it's all because "prices went up," especially since the primary reason those prices went up was that same lower supply / unavailability in the face of increased demand, but YMMV
 

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You're suggesting decreased demand as the proximal cause of those decreased sales volumes / numbers, whereas the data I see shows decreased supply as the more fitting reason.
To clarify - i did not suggest decrease in demand. I said decrease in "sales/production". But yes - we are on the same page. You cannot sell what you cannot make. Its mainly a supply issue. If TM produced the same volume as 2021 - we would not be facing price gouging.
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
My .02, Sienna is more of a wish than a need for most people. Also, more than enough people are fortunate enough to have more money than they know what to do with it. If they indulge and spend a bit more, that is perfectly OK. I personally wouldn't refer anyone who does that by less than respectful words. If everyone is required to pinch every penny, we all would be living in a two bedroom apartment and driving a corrola.
I like this reply. "Want vs Need" is a question I'm trying to ask myself a lot lately.

What I need is a van - safe enough for daily use and weekend trips

What I want is a new sienna.
 

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Amazed at how few people were taught economics. Markets are based on supply and demand. When demand is high and supply is low, prices go up. That is not a problem we need politicians to fix. If you don't want to pay the price an item costs, do not buy the item.... at least from there. Maybe you can find a similar or identical item at a better price somewhere else. Whether that "somewhere else" is at a Honda, Chrysler, Kia, or even a different Toyota dealership is entirely up to you. We live in a free market society, which means that if someone is crazy, dumb, or desperate enough to pay $45,000 for a $40,000 vehicle, and the finance company will carry it (more on that in a second), the folks selling the in demand item will get what they can get. Would you sell your house for $500,000 if you could get $650,000? Of course not. And neither are they.

The market will very soon work itself out. Dealers are now demanding cash markups because lenders are saying "enough is enough" and they're not carrying thousands over MSRP anymore. It's too risky for them if the borrower defaults once the car has depreciated $20k in a year. The banks are seeing it coming and protecting themselves. Now, all that's left is for people to start saying "I don't have $5,000 in cash in addition to my down payment." If 20 people in a row say that, the markup will go away. It's only there because people pay it.
We are in the market for a new vehicle, but with the current price gouging by dealers, we will wait. We don't have to pay monthly for any vehicles, dealers do. Let them suffer.
 

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Many dealerships are still asking over 5K cash markup?

Amazed that all these manufacturers/law makers are staying silent. These dealerships are largely responsible for bringing a recession to the auto industry. Minivan is not a pleasure or a sports car, it's a basic means of transportation for many large families, this is a very broken system. Used car market tends to follow new car prices. IMO, this price gouging is one of the reasons for the price volatility in used car market.

Why am I ranting? I need a fuel efficient van for my family of 6, can't buy lightly used because the prices are close to or higher than new MSRP, can't buy new because these f'in stealerships are greedy. BTW, I'm in a waiting list at Toyota Oakland since September, haven't received a single call yet. Tried calling dealerships in CA, OR, NV, AZ - no luck.

I may have to settle for an Odyssey. I'm seeing a lot more inventory of those cars, I think I can score a less than MSRP deal!

 

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My extended waiting has turned into "will likely never purchase". :) It's just been too long and the pricing in NorCal is absurd. 2021 LE former rentals with 40-50k miles are still going for 40k. I went to look at one at my local dealer (who sold me 2 Siennas and a Camry in the past) earlier this month that was advertised at $35k. I got there the day it was first listed and sales guy says "We've already been offered $40k plus". For a nearly 2 yo former rental with 45k miles?! The gas savings aren't enough for me. My 2011 Limited AWD is still plugging along at 177k miles but it's time to move on. I'm actually trading it in on a 2020 CPO Volvo XC90 this weekend-6 seater with 30k miles for $38k. After I add the Volvo CPO for another $3200, I'm still in the same price ballpark for a luxury vehicle with 7 years/unlimited miles of coverage. Will the Volvo be as reliable? No but I've owned multiple Volvos and the CPO plan is excellent and covers just about everything. I have 4 kids and I'm trading legroom and rear storage for a luxury vehicle at the same price. We've made 5 hour trips in a Subaru Ascent and they haven't complained yet. A good cargo box takes care of cargo space issues and the seats are miles more comfortable. It's also as safe as it gets. If the Grand Highlander looks better, I'll consider it when demand tails off. Strange days in the car world. :)
 

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My extended waiting has turned into "will likely never purchase". :) It's just been too long and the pricing in NorCal is absurd. 2021 LE former rentals with 40-50k miles are still going for 40k. I went to look at one at my local dealer (who sold me 2 Siennas and a Camry in the past) earlier this month that was advertised at $35k. I got there the day it was first listed and sales guy says "We've already been offered $40k plus". For a nearly 2 yo former rental with 45k miles?! The gas savings aren't enough for me. My 2011 Limited AWD is still plugging along at 177k miles but it's time to move on. I'm actually trading it in on a 2020 CPO Volvo XC90 this weekend-6 seater with 30k miles for $38k. After I add the Volvo CPO for another $3200, I'm still in the same price ballpark for a luxury vehicle with 7 years/unlimited miles of coverage. Will the Volvo be as reliable? No but I've owned multiple Volvos and the CPO plan is excellent and covers just about everything. I have 4 kids and I'm trading legroom and rear storage for a luxury vehicle at the same price. We've made 5 hour trips in a Subaru Ascent and they haven't complained yet. A good cargo box takes care of cargo space issues and the seats are miles more comfortable. It's also as safe as it gets. If the Grand Highlander looks better, I'll consider it when demand tails off. Strange days in the car world. :)
Yet another example of dealer markups working against themselves in the long run. Our old friend competition wins in the end!

I considered the XC90 before I got the Sienna. I have a 2012 XC60 and it's been the best car I've ever had. 231k miles and counting. Snooty/lying salesman were the only reason I passed + I was able to find a Sienna at sticker (after some talks) in another town that had been cancelled by the buyer. Volvo's CPO program is truly a hidden gem, especially when stretched to the 10 year/unlimited mile limit. Do it, you won't regret it!

Be sure to check out the swedespeed forum for help/advice!
 

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Yet another example of dealer markups working against themselves in the long run. Our old friend competition wins in the end!

I considered the XC90 before I got the Sienna. I have a 2012 XC60 and it's been the best car I've ever had. 231k miles and counting. Snooty/lying salesman were the only reason I passed + I was able to find a Sienna at sticker (after some talks) in another town that had been cancelled by the buyer. Volvo's CPO program is truly a hidden gem, especially when stretched to the 10 year/unlimited mile limit. Do it, you won't regret it!

Be sure to check out the swedespeed forum for help/advice!
I love Swedespeed. It's a great forum. I've owned a couple of XC70s and an older model XC90 and always found the answer to any question there.

RE your Volvo salesman experience-same for me! I'm not sure why but my local dealer is quite pretentious. It's funny because in my mind, the Mercedes and BMW dealers would be worse but I actually bought all 3 Volvos from various Mercedes dealers. They were much more down to Earth and easier to work with.

I was a loyal customer of my local Toyota dealer for all purchases and service for over 10 years. The 10k markup might work now but they lost me as a customer for life. If I ever buy another Toyota, I'll drive 90 minutes to one of the dealers that stayed with MSRP.
 

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I love Swedespeed. It's a great forum. I've owned a couple of XC70s and an older model XC90 and always found the answer to any question there.

RE your Volvo salesman experience-same for me! I'm not sure why but my local dealer is quite pretentious. It's funny because in my mind, the Mercedes and BMW dealers would be worse but I actually bought all 3 Volvos from various Mercedes dealers. They were much more down to Earth and easier to work with.

I was a loyal customer of my local Toyota dealer for all purchases and service for over 10 years. The 10k markup might work now but they lost me as a customer for life. If I ever buy another Toyota, I'll drive 90 minutes to one of the dealers that stayed with MSRP.
+1. I'm there as well. Same name.

The first guy looks down his nose at me and scoffs "And how do you plan to afford this vehicle?" Like that caught me off guard. Um? With money? The guy at the second dealership showed me a gorgeous 2019 XC90 momentum but it had some minor condition issues and high miles for the year. Despite having absolutely zero options, it was MORE expensive than the 2018 Inscription at the first place, and that one had half the miles. I inquired about CPO warranty, and was told it was covered. I asked for the warranty paperwork and was given a brochure for guarantee America or some trashy third party company. (Folks, if you're reading this and don't like me or whatever, I hope the one thing you learn from me is that if it is not a manufacturer warranty, it is not a warranty. You can rest assured that they will try every trick in the book to weasel their way out of paying your claim. The only warranty worth buying is one directly from the manufacturer.) The third guy was at a used car lot I had a rapport with, having bought 2 vehicles from them before. Another 2019 XC90 with highish miles and zero options. During my inspection, noticed a headlamp failure warning on the cluster. Went back and told them about it and they said they'd get it looked into and call me. Never heard from them. Having missed 3 XC90s I decided the universe was trying to tell me something so I ended up in the Sienna. As an Uber driver, it really is the smart choice. No vehicle can touch in in a revenue against cost per mile standpoint, and the 2-2-3 seating configuration is ideal for speedy loading/unloading. I just wish it had the supreme, comfortable, and serene driving experience of the XC90.

The local Toyota dealer to me is trash. My dad was in the market and their website said they had 3 hybrid Camrys in stock. So he goes in there.... nope. I get a call from him: "Hey, how much would a 2017 Prius have sold for new?" Idk.... $26k or so. "Well, they're trying to sell me this one with 17,000 miles on it for $40k." Don't walk, run! And he did. I had to go an hour out of town for my van. I almost had to pay about $500 over sticker, until the sales manager revealed that since my car was newer than the current year (2022 in 2021) that Toyota financial wouldn't honor the 1.9% financing that I had already signed a contract under. His mistake was telling me it was his fault for not realizing it. After a brief and rather angry exchange of words about now having 17 hard inquiries on my credit report AND a higher rate to boot, I was compensated for his mistake in the form of no longer paying over sticker. 😏
 

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If you drive a van 200,000 miles a Sienna will save around 4500 gallons of fuel. (Assume 36 mpg Sienna, 20 mpg Honda) The honda could do better if its lots of road trips (hiway is 28mpg, city is 19). Depending on where you live, and how much gas goes up the next 10 years, I will just "guess" 5.00 per gallon, its likely to be more even this year! That means the Sienna will save $22,500 over the life of the van (200,000 miles).

Given a real possibility that gas could well go "way, way up" from that, the Sienna is almost certainly a better long term buy than the Odessy, counting fuel.

In the short term, the Sienna is also better because the resale value of the Sienna is way better than the Honda, so it will cost you less to own it either way.

There is a reason why Sienna's are so hard to find, and the used ones often go above MSRP.

Even worse: Honda is almost certainly working on a minivan hybrid..they already have a great CRV hybrid, and accord hybrid. Then you would be stuck with a gas guzzling mini van no one would want, and that, too, would kill your resale value as soon as Honda introduces a new hybrid mini van, which may not be that long.

If you add on the additional $22,500 for fuel, the Honda, if you could find one for $40,000 winds up costing you $62,500 for a Honda mini van including the additional fuel cost vs the Sienna. This is probably a best case senario, we already had $5.00 per gallong and it will likely be much much much higher in 10 years, if your van lasts that long. So, the actual cost would likely be $30,000 or more for the life of the van in additional fuel costs on the Honda vs the Sienna.
You are off on your estimate. Gas is about ~$3.5 now depending on where you live so I'll based it on $4 to account for a future. A month ago it was $3.10
  • 200,000/ 36mpg = 5555 gallons x $4 = $22,000
  • 200,000/ 22mpg = 9090 gallons x $4 = $36,363. (22 is the combine mpg for the Odysses)
Just to make it interesting, let's figure the cost at $5/gallon.
  • 200,000/ 36mpg = 5555 gallons x $5 = $27,700
  • 200,000/ 22mpg = 9090 gallons x $5 = $45,454.
Still not near $22k. Calculating gas at $5 is not realistic because you're estimating gas will be >$6 in the future and with the recession going on, I don't think it will get to $6 anytime soon.
Also, you're calculating the cost at 200k miles. Hitting 200k miles is toward the upper lifespan of a car. Now if you usually keep your car for that long then more power to you but the majority of Americans do not keep their cars no where near that.
150k miles life span for a car would be closer to accurate. Toyota warranty for the Hybrid battery is 10/150k which ever comes first.
 
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