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All that LEAN MANUFACTURING BS is hurting Toyota in its behind......
I took a course in lean systems (inspired by Toyota experience) a few years ago and my impression was that the concept was making a gamble on 99% of participants being skilled, motivated, and available on demand. Because the time slack and overlaps in responsibilities have been cut to near zero, the system has a lower [than we think] error tolerance. It will fail soon after any of the components is compromised.

Hell this is killing their profits, you bet they want to sell as many as possible. Conspiracy nuts will be conspiracy nuts....just because. 😂
The - arguably - nuttiest of the conspiracy nuts must be feeling vindicated these days. After being called "crazy" for decades for sitting atop the hills, in flowing white robes, awaiting the beam-up instructions:)

Pentagon task force's UFO report released — many cases remain unexplained - CBS News
 
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But its not a conspiracy either. You don't think these manufacturers want to sell as many vehicles as they can?
No. I think car companies are liking the new status quo, target a tight supply to an over sized demand, direct factory order to customer model has turned out to be hugely profitable. Why give this up? Say, in 2019, for simplicity, Toyota makes 100 cars and squeezes out a net profit of $1000 per car, total profit is $100,000. Fast forward 2 years, profit is now $3500 per car (market price adjustments by several thousand dollars year over year, no more incentives, hold backs, etc), but sell only 80 cars, profit still jumps to $280,000, a hefty $180,000 margin increase. Multiply this by millions of vehicles. Add to the fact that pre-ordering can be anywhere from 1 to 2 years of guaranteed profit. See why it makes no $ sense to go back to the old days of producing more vehicles than real-time demand?
 
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Due to the current barrage of factors beyond their control, car companies aren't even coming close to meeting demand right now, hence losing significant sales. They can't be too happy about it but at some point this will (hopefully) balance out to a workable solution for manufacturers, sales people and customers. I'm not holding my breath so have cancelled my Sienna order to do something else...on which they will miss out.

I'm sure there are many thousands of folks finding alternate solutions (i.e. - buying less popular vehicles like sedans, fixing up older (better?) vehicles, driving less, using public transportation where possible, etc) which means longer intervals between purchasing new higher-end units - even no sale and zero profit. When the current offerings/methods aren't working and there is demand, new workarounds/solutions always emerge.
 

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No. I think car companies are liking the new status quo, target a tight supply to an over sized demand, direct factory order to customer model has turned out to be hugely profitable. Why give this up? Say, in 2019, for simplicity, Toyota makes 100 cars and squeezes out a net profit of $1000 per car, total profit is $100,000. Fast forward 2 years, profit is now $3500 per car (market price adjustments by several thousand dollars year over year, no more incentives, hold backs, etc), but sell only 80 cars, profit still jumps to $280,000, a hefty $180,000 margin increase. Multiply this by millions of vehicles. Add to the fact that pre-ordering can be anywhere from 1 to 2 years of guaranteed profit. See why it makes no $ sense to go back to the old days of producing more vehicles than real-time demand?
Is it the dealers that is making the hefty profits on each unit by inflating above msrp price or is it the manufacture. As long as the dealer middleman is involved, a slice of the pie is to be had. Cut out the dealers, then it is a whole different conversation.
 

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No. I think car companies are liking the new status quo, target a tight supply to an over sized demand, direct factory order to customer model has turned out to be hugely profitable. Why give this up? Say, in 2019, for simplicity, Toyota makes 100 cars and squeezes out a net profit of $1000 per car, total profit is $100,000. Fast forward 2 years, profit is now $3500 per car (market price adjustments by several thousand dollars year over year, no more incentives, hold backs, etc), but sell only 80 cars, profit still jumps to $280,000, a hefty $180,000 margin increase. Multiply this by millions of vehicles. Add to the fact that pre-ordering can be anywhere from 1 to 2 years of guaranteed profit. See why it makes no $ sense to go back to the old days of producing more vehicles than real-time demand?
Sooner than later, some car company will figure out a way to supply more cars than demand. Ones who had hoped to make more money based on reduced supplies will loose out. Lower supply usually helps subpar products too.

Entire eco systems are developed based on number of units that need be sold and supported. Higher volumes helps reduce manufecturing costs and support costs.

Current scenario reminds me of growing up in India in 80s -90s. Buying cars back than meant putting in deposit and waiting for months for it get built and delivered. That's 3rd world situation, not an advanced supply-demand based system. It is not sustainable or good for everyone involved except a small minority of dealers ( with political support).
 

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No. I think car companies are liking the new status quo, target a tight supply to an over sized demand, direct factory order to customer model has turned out to be hugely profitable. Why give this up? Say, in 2019, for simplicity, Toyota makes 100 cars and squeezes out a net profit of $1000 per car, total profit is $100,000. Fast forward 2 years, profit is now $3500 per car (market price adjustments by several thousand dollars year over year, no more incentives, hold backs, etc), but sell only 80 cars, profit still jumps to $280,000, a hefty $180,000 margin increase. Multiply this by millions of vehicles. Add to the fact that pre-ordering can be anywhere from 1 to 2 years of guaranteed profit. See why it makes no $ sense to go back to the old days of producing more vehicles than real-time demand?
As the socio-politico-economic conditions continue to evolve, I am certain we will soon see rather dramatic changes in the automotive landscape (at least in the West). Direct factory orders, lease/rent instead of ownership, continuous development instead of "model years", and - above all - a visible reduction of the overall demand and the fleet size.
 
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Sooner than later, some car company will figure out a way to supply more cars than demand. Ones who had hoped to make more money based on reduced supplies will loose out. Lower supply usually helps subpar products too.

Entire eco systems are developed based on number of units that need be sold and supported. Higher volumes helps reduce manufecturing costs and support costs.

Current scenario reminds me of growing up in India in 80s -90s. Buying cars back than meant putting in deposit and waiting for months for it get built and delivered. That's 3rd world situation, not an advanced supply-demand based system. It is not sustainable or good for everyone involved except a small minority of dealers ( with political support).
I think we will also see the development of entirely new manufacturing ecosystems, more suitable for building/customizing to order, like 3D printing. Maybe reduction of the number of models, but increase in selectable options.configurations for each model.
 

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Sienna sales are down 45% compared to last June and down 40% YOY.

Toyota appears to be prioritizing RAV4 Hybrid sales, which have gone up from 24% to 43% of total RAV4 sales.
I have both. Bought them earlier this year.
 

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Has anyone been able to find July 2022 sales numbers? because I haven't :(

Update: And what's REALLY interesting is how the Pacifica, who is the only minivan that didn't earn the "recommended" status from CR, has done so well. It is the only minivan who has improved its sales in the shrinking market. So far in 2022 almost every other minivan, sold on the US market, has been Pacifica. I guess the "shortages" do not affect Chrysler in the same way as they do Toyota or Honda. Good for Chrysler.

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Has anyone been able to find July 2022 sales numbers? because I haven't :(
Can't find US numbers but Canadian Toyota sales were down 22.8% YOY for July. Waiting for model specific numbers to be released to see Sienna sales but probably similar percentage wise.
I should add that a 20% drop YOY for Sienna sales would still make it the best month for 2022 thus far.
 

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maybe this is a clue.
Looks like this article is dated 2021. In that year Toyota (and the then-new Gen 4 SIenna) did remarkably well.
 

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Discussion Starter · #38 ·
Has anyone been able to find July 2022 sales numbers? because I haven't :(

Update: And what's REALLY interesting is how the Pacifica, who is the only minivan that didn't earn the "recommended" status from CR, has done so well. It is the only minivan who has improved its sales in the shrinking market. So far in 2022 almost every other minivan, sold on the US market, has been Pacifica. I guess the "shortages" do not affect Chrysler in the same way as they do Toyota or Honda. Good for Chrysler.
Toyota no longer releases them monthly figures. GoodCarBadCar used to have monthly Sienna sales figures, but hasn't for 2022. Anyone else have any luck?

Pacifica had low sales figures last year, looks like they've gotten through their supply chain issues. Heck, you can buy one for slightly below MSRP now.
 

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Toyota no longer releases them monthly figures. GoodCarBadCar used to have monthly Sienna sales figures, but hasn't for 2022. Anyone else have any luck?

Pacifica had low sales figures last year, looks like they've gotten through their supply chain issues. Heck, you can buy one for slightly below MSRP now.
For some reason, GoodCarBadCar is still reporting Canadian Sienna sales, which I keenly look for at the beginning of every month. I have looked around trying to figure out where they source their data from, but I can't seem to locate any public sources.

If you follow the news on available inventory for the different manufacturers, it has been a reversal of fortunes type of situation between the American and Japanese makes. In 2021, the Japanese manufacturers were in better shape, but this year, Toyota, Honda, and Subaru are all suffering badly. Stellantis does have by far the highest inventory. I think if I was in any kind of rush, I would have to consider the Pacifica too, but we decided we'd hold out for our Sienna.
 

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Toyota no longer releases them monthly figures. GoodCarBadCar used to have monthly Sienna sales figures, but hasn't for 2022. Anyone else have any luck?
I am sure there is an estimate, like there is for example for Tesla Model Y, which is not even reported by Tesla separately (only as TM3 + TMY, and only quarterly). But I can't find it anywhere.

Pacifica had low sales figures last year, looks like they've gotten through their supply chain issues. Heck, you can buy one for slightly below MSRP now.
Actually, in 2021 Pacifica didn't have low sales figures - surely lower than the Gen 4 Sienna, but still 98K copies (market share of 28.4%).

I am wondering if the "global supply chain issues" catchfrase is beginning to wear thin. Whenever I drive by our local Chevy dealership I spot dozens of Silverados, Colorados, larger SUVs! Even half a dozen Bolts. In the past weeks the dealership reached out to me THREE TIMES with "special offers". Then one or two miles up the road the Ford and Toyota dealerships' lots are half-empty, but there is still a choice of vehicles. Gosh, you can even catch a glimpse of a Mach-e once in a while - but not of a Lightning.

Whereas a mile or two down the road there are Hyundai, Honda, Subaru, and Kia dealerships, who have literally no more than 20 vehicles each, thinly spread over their lots, and half of them are second-hand ones from different brands.
 
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