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I think the Distance-to-Empty mainly depends on (1) How much fuel the gauge senses in the tank, and (2) Your history of fuel consumption. Have you done anything recently that may have increased your fuel consumption? Like driving very fast, or hauling stuff on the roof at high speed, or towing?

The 500 miles-to-empty (given that the tank is 18 gallons) translates into 28 mpg, which is very low. The 2022 Sienna shows 32.4 mpg average on Fuelly, and the summer figures are typically better than winter.
 
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