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Which Toyota will you choose if only these 2 minivans were available.

  • Sienna Full Plug-in EV

    Votes: 7 17.5%
  • Sienna Plug-in Hybrid "Prime"

    Votes: 33 82.5%
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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
In the future - if a Sienna Plug-in Hybrid Prime (true 50 mile EV range) becomes a reality and also a Sienna BEV (300 mile range) - which would you choose ? If the following are held equal - power, trim, size/capacity, seating options, AWD-FWD options and no govt rebate assistance. Lets not discuss pricing for now because its still to early to determine market demands and availability of gas and battery technology in 2022. So kinda like this Lexus concept

I purposely removed a Sienna Hybrid option because mechanicaly - there is very little difference between the current RAV4 prime drivetrain and the Sienna (both use p810 hybrid drivetrain). So I think - it does not take too much R&D to turn the Sienna into a Prime version. All it needs is a charging circuit and a big Lithium Battery (around 20 kWH). But still - i want to hear your opinion about that.
 

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I would chose Plug-in hybrid, 20km range daily in ev is enough for me, and on any longer trip im ok with gas.
Will see how it will turn out in new grand highlander in plug-in version. They might copy it to sienna in the future.
 

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In the future - if a Sienna Plug-in Hybrid Prime (true 50 mile EV range)
Until there's a real breakthrough in price/kwh/kg in battery tech, which everyone is working on but no one has achieved, a 50 mile battery is huge, heavy, and expensive. And just as important, it's too big for the average trip in the USA which is only 11.7 miles. 50 miles x 365=18,000 miles/yr. Also, once a battery is that big, the avg consumer can not charge it to full on L1 in a reasonable amount of time (aka overnight). A 25-30 mile pack can cover the 11.7 mile round trip avg.


Also, sticking to terms "BEV", "PHEV" and "HEV" keeps everyone on the same page.
 

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Until there's a real breakthrough in price/kwh/kg in battery tech, which everyone is working on but no one has achieved, a 50 mile battery is huge, heavy, and expensive. And just as important, it's too big for the average trip in the USA which is only 11.7 miles. 50 miles x 365=18,000 miles/yr. Also, once a battery is that big, the avg consumer can not charge it to full on L1 in a reasonable amount of time (aka overnight). A 25-30 mile pack can cover the 11.7 mile round trip avg.


Also, sticking to terms "BEV", "PHEV" and "HEV" keeps everyone on the same page.
In theory with just an L1 even if you don't make up the full trip range by charging overnight, maybe you'd make it up over a weekend at a faster charger.

Based on the 300 mile range I would choose the BEV I guess, but you have to remember things like... you aren't supposed to go under 10% and not charge above 90%. Also maybe 10% range drop in cold weather. So maybe in the end you'd end up with a low 200 miles. I'd just do it because I hate paying for gas, but I would definitely suffer on any long road trip. Although on fast charging I think its about 1/4 the cost of fill up but that could go up. Also in theory if everyone moved to BEV the grid would need to be upgraded 25% and I don't know how that would effect electricity prices but it would keep up fast.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Actually voted for full BEV presuming a good network of charging stations for our road trips.

Got the hybrid so ready for full BEV now :)
I voted for BEV too. But mostly for simplicity. Removing the ICE takes a lot of complexity from each vehicle. No more engine oil, coolant, exhaust getting stolen. Im pretty sure when batteries become more and more mass produced - there will be economies of scale working to our advantage. From a manufacturing standpoint - there is far less parts needed to be made to create a PHEV than a BEV. No fuel systems, emission systems and ICE systems to be made.

By 2035 - this will be a moot point but states like CA/NY/MA might already ban any ICE vehicle sales. But its still too early to say that with certainty. Its just a goal they want to set out there.
 

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Based on the 300 mile range I would choose the BEV I guess, but you have to remember things like... you aren't supposed to go under 10% and not charge above 90%. Also maybe 10% range drop in cold weather. So maybe in the end you'd end up with a low 200 miles. I'd just do it because I hate paying for gas, but I would definitely suffer on any long road trip. Although on fast charging I think its about 1/4 the cost of fill up but that could go up. Also in theory if everyone moved to BEV the grid would need to be upgraded 25% and I don't know how that would effect electricity prices but it would keep up fast.
I haven't, yet, found data showing that shallow cycles wears lithium batteries less than heavy cycles, but rather just a total integrated Wh of capacity used over the life of the battery. Cycle from 100 to 50% and you get twice as many cycles, but same number of total Wh as if you had cycled from 100 to 0%. If you know of such data to the contrary, please send it to me. In the absence of such, there's no reason to not charge to 100% before a long road trip. On the other hand, you probably don't want to purposely shoot for under 10% charge on a trip, cause things could happen (traffic, AC usage, detours) and you don't want to get stranded. But going to 0% isn't going to hurt the battery, to my knowledge, assuming the engineers implemented low-voltage cutoff appropriately (and low voltage damage cut-off points are extremely well known, so they almost certainly have this set properly).

That said, there is a valid reason to avoid charging to 100% regularly. Batteries suffer death by aging two ways. Cycle aging, briefly touched on above, which is essentially solely a measure of total miles driven, and not by charge level used, and calendar aging. Any battery just sitting, used or not, will suffer a slow but steady loss of capacity over time, which is known as calendar aging. Calendar aging is affected by temperature, speeding up when hot and slowing down when cold. It's also affected by the state-of-charge (SoC) of the battery. For every chemistry, there is a SoC that has a minimum amount of calendar aging. For lead acid this is at 100% SoC. NiCad prefers to be stored empty. NiMH doesn't have a very strong SoC aging variation, but is minimized at roughly 80% SoC. And lithium aging is minimized at roughly 50% SoC.

Because of the 50% SoC slowing calendar aging to a minimum, all other things being equal, a battery whose average SoC is closer to 50% will last longer than one who's average SoC is closer to 100%. So if your normal round trip commute uses 30% of the capacity of your battery, for longest life, on days you are just commuting, you'd charge to 65%. You'd be at 50% when you get to work, which is the ideal storage level. Then when you get home you'd be at 35%. You'd plug in, and program your charger to charge back to 65%, and do it at a nice slow rate overnight, so it just finishes before you leave to work (with a little buffer). This would absolutely maximize your battery life...and also drive the average consumer nuts, who wants all batteries to be at 100% all the time if possible. But default to full charges, or nearly so, and let power users do advanced charging with variable charge configuration. Tesla allows setting the max charge to between 60-100% for this exact reason. You can therefore optimize charging for normal commuting to extend the lifespan of the battery as much as possible, while allowing charging to 100% on a manual basis for road trips.

It's pretty common for cell phones nowadays to implement a charge scheme that's a balance between annoying consumers and helping increase battery life because of this 50% SoC making batteries live longer. My phone, when plugged in at night, will charge to 80%, then pause, and only finish the remaining 20% about 30 minutes prior to my alarm. My understanding is this is becoming a default scheme on modern phones. This keeps it closer to the 50% mark for longer than if you charged to 100% immediately, yet ensures sufficient charge should I wake up earlier than my alarm to not be overly affected by a low charge. If I charge during the day it will charge to 100% without pausing at 80%. I've also seen options in laptop BIOS to set the maximum charge to between either 80% or 100% so you can adjust battery life between charges with overall battery longevity depending on your needs.

In short, if you charge an electric vehicle with lithium batteries (all current non-hybrid electric vehicles have lithium batteries), change the charge settings to charge only sufficiently to maintain an average SoC of 50% for commuting, but do not worry that occasional road trips and charging to 100% will harm the battery. It won't, you'll only suffer a measurable reduction in battery life if you constantly charge and maintain the SoC close to 100% all the time. If you maintain at a SoC closer to 50% on average for normal commuting, the lifespan reduction in charging to 100% for occasional long road trips will not be measurable. So take your 100% charge in those fringe cases and don't worry about it.
 

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I would avoid a phev when traveling with kids until they come up with a super fast charger. 10 minute Gas & pee stops are challenging enough when wrangling kids at a busy rest area. Trying to entertain for hours will not be fun.
 

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I would avoid a phev when traveling with kids until they come up with a super fast charger. 10 minute Gas & pee stops are challenging enough when wrangling kids at a busy rest area. Trying to entertain for hours will not be fun.
Instead of PHEV, I think you maybe meant BEV.

My former Clarity PHEV had a 300ish mile hybrid gas range and about 42-48 miles EV range for a total of about 350 miles. The gas tank was 7 gallons and I could refill it in as little as 45 secs (timed). It takes about that long just to start a charge session (apps, credit card swipes, etc). Range wise at high speeds, a 300 mile BEV vehicle is more like a 150-175 mile highway vehicle because the best/fastest way to recharge a large pack is keep it between 20-80% because the charge rate drops dramatically outside those parameters. Purely as an example, it might take 45-60 minutes to go from 20-80% but another 2 hrs to go from 80-100%. I believe Tesla set 160 miles as the max between charge station locations.
 

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I would avoid a phev when traveling with kids until they come up with a super fast charger. 10 minute Gas & pee stops are challenging enough when wrangling kids at a busy rest area. Trying to entertain for hours will not be fun.
A PHEV will charge itself if necessary (which will be after ~30 miles). You mean a pure EV, which will require being plugged in to charge, as there is no ICE.
 

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In the future - if a Sienna Plug-in Hybrid Prime (true 50 mile EV range) becomes a reality and also a Sienna BEV (300 mile range) - which would you choose ? If the following are held equal - power, trim, size/capacity, seating options, AWD-FWD options and no govt rebate assistance. Lets not discuss pricing for now because its still to early to determine market demands and availability of gas and battery technology in 2022. So kinda like this Lexus concept

I purposely removed a Sienna Hybrid option because mechanicaly - there is very little difference between the current RAV4 prime drivetrain and the Sienna (both use p810 hybrid drivetrain). So I think - it does not take too much R&D to turn the Sienna into a Prime version. All it needs is a charging circuit and a big Lithium Battery (around 20 kWH). But still - i want to hear your opinion about that.
The Sienna Prime would be super nice. I'd be very tempted to get one.

The RAV4 has 2" larger ground clearance and 14" shorter wheelbase, which makes it easier to slide a larger battery under its body. I imagine Toyota can rearrange the things underneath and lift the suspension by say 2", but it would more quite a bit more work that just adding the charger etc.

Instead of PHEV, I think you maybe meant BEV.

My former Clarity PHEV had a 300ish mile hybrid gas range and about 42-48 miles EV range for a total of about 350 miles. The gas tank was 7 gallons and I could refill it in as little as 45 secs (timed). It takes about that long just to start a charge session (apps, credit card swipes, etc). Range wise at high speeds, a 300 mile BEV vehicle is more like a 150-175 mile highway vehicle because the best/fastest way to recharge a large pack is keep it between 20-80% because the charge rate drops dramatically outside those parameters. Purely as an example, it might take 45-60 minutes to go from 20-80% but another 2 hrs to go from 80-100%. I believe Tesla set 160 miles as the max between charge station locations.
If I remember correctly, Clarity came equipped with a suite of sales prevention features :). If only they had put an adequately size PHEV powertrain into their best-seller Gen 4 CRV, in 2017-2018, it may have made history.

Actually voted for full BEV presuming a good network of charging stations for our road trips.

Got the hybrid so ready for full BEV now :)
I am guessing you would keep both your existing Sienna and the new BEV one, right? :)

In theory with just an L1 even if you don't make up the full trip range by charging overnight, maybe you'd make it up over a weekend at a faster charger.

Based on the 300 mile range I would choose the BEV I guess, but you have to remember things like... you aren't supposed to go under 10% and not charge above 90%. Also maybe 10% range drop in cold weather. So maybe in the end you'd end up with a low 200 miles. I'd just do it because I hate paying for gas, but I would definitely suffer on any long road trip. Although on fast charging I think its about 1/4 the cost of fill up but that could go up. Also in theory if everyone moved to BEV the grid would need to be upgraded 25% and I don't know how that would effect electricity prices but it would keep up fast.
Looking at the Buzzy Forks specs, Toyota's school of thinking teaches that 250 miles is all what all we need for perfect happiness, so until the solid state batteries are ready, I wouldn't expect 300 miles. Further, the cold weather range drop can be a lot higher than 10%, let's say 30%, assuming Toyota is going to figure out the battery conditioning really well. This leaves us with 160 miles winter range .... and a much slower charging speed on L3. And if you, forbid the thought, want to tow something, get ready for 100 miles to flat :(
 

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Instead of PHEV, I think you maybe meant BEV.

My former Clarity PHEV had a 300ish mile hybrid gas range and about 42-48 miles EV range for a total of about 350 miles. The gas tank was 7 gallons and I could refill it in as little as 45 secs (timed). It takes about that long just to start a charge session (apps, credit card swipes, etc). Range wise at high speeds, a 300 mile BEV vehicle is more like a 150-175 mile highway vehicle because the best/fastest way to recharge a large pack is keep it between 20-80% because the charge rate drops dramatically outside those parameters. Purely as an example, it might take 45-60 minutes to go from 20-80% but another 2 hrs to go from 80-100%. I believe Tesla set 160 miles as the max between charge station locations.
Yes, my bad. BEV charging with kids around would be miserable.
 
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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Yes, my bad. BEV charging with kids around would be miserable.
Yes this is a big problem faced by future planners/problem solvers. USA is not in an ideal situation because very little was spent on electric high speed trains. So we rely heavily on highways, airplanes and private transpo for long trips. It will take a lot of sacrifice and adjustment for Americans and other countries like the Philippines who did not invest in environment-sustainable mass transportation.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 · (Edited)
Here is a taste of what is coming. Expect the same treatment for future Sienna’s. increase in HEV acceleration. Better batteries. Solar roof.

 

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Hopefully the new Prius signals a new design direction, restrained with less prominent arches and smoother body panels. A blue round badge debuts on the Prius and will make it to all electrified Toyotas.

Still doubt we're seeing a Sienna Prime anytime soon, Toyota doesn't have enough batteries to go around and both the Primes in the lineup don't sell many units.
 
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