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So I have no idea why Toyota didn’t just skip directly to a plug in hybrid for the new Sienna? Are they waiting to create a v6 hybrid for the tundra and then still wait more and then finally hobble together a plug in hybrid a decade from now? By that time the EU will be banning all gas/hybrid vehicle sales (I assume other countries will do something similar).

Come on Toyota... How can you possibly compete if you keep waiting for others to lead the market in EV’s. Don’t wait for Tesla to make a minivan... they will eat your lunch.
 

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Toyota was the first company to mass market hybrid vehicle technology.

However, at this point, they seem to have become complacent and lost their lead.
They really need to push forward, at the very least giving a plug to their vehicle lineup of hybrids.

As a reference, presently there are now 27 other vehicle models out there that are PHEV.
Toyota has 2 (with one not yet available for sale at this time).
What happened?

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So I have no idea why Toyota didn’t just skip directly to a plug in hybrid for the new Sienna? Are they waiting to create a v6 hybrid for the tundra and then still wait more and then finally hobble together a plug in hybrid a decade from now? By that time the EU will be banning all gas/hybrid vehicle sales (I assume other countries will do something similar).

Come on Toyota... How can you possibly compete if you keep waiting for others to lead the market in EV’s. Don’t wait for Tesla to make a minivan... they will eat your lunch.
It likely has to do more with the supply chain of batteries, and also Toyotas long-game conservative EV strategy to milk as much profits from gas burners for as long as possible. Rav4 Prime which a Sienna Prime PHEV would likely share its powertrain with has a 17.8 kWh battery versus the ~2kWh battery in the 2021 Sienna Hybrid. Basically, they can produce 9 regular hybrids with the same amounts of material versus making 1 PHEV with a giant battery.

It will be very difficult to get ahold of a Rav4 Prime living in a ZEV State once they are available and next to impossible in non-ZEV States as I was reading some dealers will get either 1 or 0. Sure Toyota could have offered the same thing and had both versions offering the PHEV in very limited quantity, but the Rav4 is their bread and butter and they will not even come close to meeting the demand of the Rav4 Prime so why bother taking away even more supply from the Rav4. The Sienna has been selling around 80K units a year, and its competitors around 100K a year. I can see the new model selling 100K, and they likely don't have the supply chain to make that many PHEV Siennas. If Tesla sells a 100K+ EV minivans, Toyota's battery supply would probably magically increase.
 

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What I don’t get is... if batteries are so hard to “get” how is it Europe has a ban on all Gas burning or hybrid vehicles to be sold starting in 2035? How are all these electric start ups “getting” batteries??

To be honest, I will vote with my dollars and the hybrid sienna won’t get $1 from me. At this point in time of 2020... I kind of expect a minivan to be a Plug in EV with at least a 40 kWh battery. If toyota needs to ditch the spare tire (fine, my bmw has no spare and my 2015 awd sienna has no spare either). I am perfectly fine without RFT’s as well (Thats what AAA Plus or Premiere is for with a free 200 mile flat bed tow).

What if Tesla says “Hey lets make a minivan after the cybertruck”. You can only ride on coat tails for so long. The Supra is a dud (I’d rather just go out and get the BMW). The Rav4 prime seems interesting but they don’t have the supply this year. Also I hope they plan to do no front plate prep because I would rather have a tow hook plate and no drilled bumper holes.

Toyota really needs to innovate faster and cut thru some of the nonsense. They are getting beat to the punch by other EV’s to the electrified future. Pretty soon we might be hearing of Toyota filing for bankruptcy because they could not keep up with what customers wanted and someone else was able to give the market what it needed.
 

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What if Tesla says “Hey lets make a minivan after the cybertruck”. You can only ride on coat tails for so long.
I doubt that a minivan from Tesla would impact Toyota all that much unless Tesla's minivan would have far more range than their current vehicles.

As I've mentioned in other threads, none of Tesla's current vehicles can come close to working for us in many of the areas in which we drive. Outside of densely populated areas, e.g. coastal California, EV's remain more of a lifestyle choice than anything else. Charging stations are going to have to become vastly more common and charging times sharply reduced before EV's are practical in flyover country ... or EV range is going to have to be far longer than currently. Even a 600 mile EV range would be a struggle for us. An 800 mile EV range is about the minimum that would work for us in a general use vehicle as long as the charging duration was reduced to the amount of time it takes to fill a conventional gas tank.

The existence of charging stations doesn't mean they're usable. A photo of an unusually large Tesla supercharger station made the rounds in the media a few days ago. All the bays of the Tesla charging facility were occupied by parked non-EV vehicles. Here's a link to a video about the problem: Been ICEd? Gas Cars Parking In Electric-Car Charging Spots (Video)

One of our next vehicles will likely be a PHEV. My wife was planning to replace her 2012 Prius v wagon with a 2021 RAV4 PHEV until I showed her information about the 2021 Venza hybrid. Now she will wait a year or two to see if there's a Venza PHEV. I might get her to consider a Sienna hybrid if it was a PHEV even though she hates driving our Sienna due to its size. For her, the only place a PHEV would be charged is in our garage since there are no close-in handicap parking spaces that also have EV charging. Most if not all EV charging units around here are at the far edges of parking lots.
 

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One of our next vehicles will likely be a PHEV. My wife was planning to replace her 2012 Prius v wagon with a 2021 RAV4 PHEV until I showed her information about the 2021 Venza hybrid. Now she will wait a year or two to see if there's a Venza PHEV.
We're in the market for an AWD PHEV too. The RAV4 Prime is too small for our needs and the back seat sits so low that shorter passengers can barely see out the windows. A Sienna would be ideal, but I'd consider a Venza. It's also rumored that Ford may the Fusion station wagon as an AWD PHEV for the 2022 model year.
 

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RAV4 gets Prime in year 3. Highlander will get it in year 3 at the earliest.

Best case for Sienna might be MY 2023?
 

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RAV4 gets Prime in year 3. Highlander will get it in year 3 at the earliest.

Best case for Sienna might be MY 2023?
I think it might be sooner than that, since there is no non-hybrid Sienna launched like there was with the new Highlander and Rav4 when they debuted.
The new Sienna is their first larger vehicle that has totally skipped the ICE only option. That means there's one less step to go to make it a plugin.

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I think it might be sooner than that, since there is no non-hybrid Sienna launched like there was with the new Highlander and Rav4 when they debuted.
The new Sienna is their first larger vehicle that has totally skipped the ICE only option. That means there's one less step to go to make it a plugin.

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Could be ... but also thinking Toyota wants a year of market data, then finalize plans in year two, launch for year three. But sooner is fine too.
 

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What I don’t get is... if batteries are so hard to “get” how is it Europe has a ban on all Gas burning or hybrid vehicles to be sold starting in 2035? How are all these electric start ups “getting” batteries??

To be honest, I will vote with my dollars and the hybrid sienna won’t get $1 from me. At this point in time of 2020... I kind of expect a minivan to be a Plug in EV with at least a 40 kWh battery. If toyota needs to ditch the spare tire (fine, my bmw has no spare and my 2015 awd sienna has no spare either). I am perfectly fine without RFT’s as well (Thats what AAA Plus or Premiere is for with a free 200 mile flat bed tow).

What if Tesla says “Hey lets make a minivan after the cybertruck”. You can only ride on coat tails for so long. The Supra is a dud (I’d rather just go out and get the BMW). The Rav4 prime seems interesting but they don’t have the supply this year. Also I hope they plan to do no front plate prep because I would rather have a tow hook plate and no drilled bumper holes.

Toyota really needs to innovate faster and cut thru some of the nonsense. They are getting beat to the punch by other EV’s to the electrified future. Pretty soon we might be hearing of Toyota filing for bankruptcy because they could not keep up with what customers wanted and someone else was able to give the market what it needed.
Under current technology and supply chain it isn't feasible that every car in Europe could be a battery EV. Toyota is investing in Solid State batteries and you'll see them around 2025 or later in cars which this will cut down on material, will be denser, smaller with longer range. Its a joint venture with Panasonic (makes Tesla Batteries) to make this happen. Denser batteries, larger supply, and Fuel Cell vehicles will help Europe reach that lofty goal.

I was hoping for a PHEV. I'd expect them to come out with a Highlander PHEV before a Sienna. From a market standpoint they are probably going to produce 100K regular Hybrid Sienna's and sell every last one of them which are cheaper to produce than a PHEV/BEV. The market share for plugin vehicles is around 2% of vehicles. Minivans sell 500K a year total from all manufacturers which is sadly less than half of what is used to be. A BEV Minivan currently would be a niche product in a declining segment market.
 

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Inconsistent phrasing - is the 5K simply a slow ramp up in CY20, then 20K annually starting ~Jan 2021? Or is the full MY21 just 5K?

"Due to unforeseen supply chain constraints, we have revised our production plan downward for calendar year 2020. We expect to reach previously planned production levels by early 2021.

We anticipate the first model-year would be about 5,000 – and year 2 forward would be about 20,000."

in fact, 5K in Q4 2020 would equate to 20K in CY 2021. So now I really AM confused.
 

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Inconsistent phrasing - is the 5K simply a slow ramp up in CY20, then 20K annually starting ~Jan 2021? Or is the full MY21 just 5K?

"Due to unforeseen supply chain constraints, we have revised our production plan downward for calendar year 2020. We expect to reach previously planned production levels by early 2021.

We anticipate the first model-year would be about 5,000 – and year 2 forward would be about 20,000."

in fact, 5K in Q4 2020 would equate to 20K in CY 2021. So now I really AM confused.
Good point. To me it seemed like next year might see hopefully 20K (5k a quarter) it is confusing the way they are referring to model year vs. calendar year so I'm not exactly certain. I thought it was going on sale sooner though like this month since you can build one on the Toyota website now, so it would be half the production level (2.5k/quarter) for 2020.
The 2021 Rav4 Prime may be the last PHEV Toyota offers using current gen battery tech. My guess is their next all new Prius will usher in the next gen battery tech (solid state, etc.) with other PHEV Toyota models to follow.
 

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Just looked at RAV4 Prime configurator. I see Toyota went all-in on black interiors for it so, if it had been on our shopping list, it wouldn't be any longer.

Sienna XSE early photos show a mixed light/dark interior, so could be OK if that interior is used for Prime, if/when that happens.
 

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@ jmmaxus

I thought that Toyota said the solid state batteries they are developing with Panasonic are going to be available around 2025 or so. That's quite some time from now. Is Toyota really going to wait that long to release the the next PHEV and/or BEV? If that's so, they will be passed up by many auto makers.

They were supposed to have some demonstration cars using the solid state batteries at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. However, as we all know, that's not working out with the Olympics delayed till 2021.



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Starting to think that given demand vs limited supply for RAV4 Prime, Toyota will sell as many as they can send to USA and won’t bother to offer any more Prime vehicles (e.g. Sienna, Highlander).

Furthermore, thinking Toyota will aim for ZEV state compliance for as many years as it can before hitting 200k and starting phase out of Federal tax credit. Why offer more vehicles than it has to beyond compliance, and why rush any faster to 200k? Business case starts to change significantly once Federal tax credit phase out begins.

RAV4 Prime and Prius Prime could likely be just ZEV compliance sales and Toyota’s bridge to EV:

www.burlappcar.com

Toyota's upcoming Electric cars.
burlappcars.com
www.burlappcar.com

www.burlappcar.com

Toyota's all new e-TNGA electric car platform
burlappcars.com
www.burlappcar.com

Comments?
 

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There is another tread on 2nd row seats. And it’s noted that the higher trims and AWD don’t have 8 seater options. Some suspect that is because the limit for class I light duty vehicles is <6,000 lb GVWR and the 2020 Sienna is rated at 5,995 lb. So how on earth would they pack a 40kWh battery pack, even if a 7 seater and magical solid state batteries and stay under that weight limit? I’d love a Sienna PHEV
 
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