I would suggest grabbing alcohol (you're going to need it) and head over to the gen 4 forums and start reading here - US Prices Paid
. Start around page 15 or so to get started around the 2022 OTD prices.
There's just too many variables though to call any one persons situation. I tend to notice the biggest factor is location. Someone living in a place like say rural Nebraska has better chances of scoring a good price/msrp van compared to those having to shop for one in a place like Houston or LA.
Personally I went from being on around 8 wait list down to 1 after having two so called msrp dealers both raise their prices when the day came to actually buy the vehicle (wasn't going to risk getting burned after a 3 hour drive so took back my deposits). The last place I'm with now had a 2k markup when I signed up with them 8 months ago but have now raised that to 5k. At least they are honoring the original 2k still with me. Good luck.