First off, general recommendation for any oil changes is to drain while still warm. So for both engines and transmissions, drive till at normal temps, let cool until the exhaust and oil won't burn you but is still warm, then drain.
Second, as mentioned already, there are two parts to the transmission drain. Firstly, there's the main drain plug. But second, as you really need to be aware of, there is an overflow tube that sticks up through the bottom of the transmission pan. This overflow tube is used for setting the oil level. It needs to be removed (use a hex key) to drain all the fluid from the pan. If you don't remove this, all the fluid won't drain.
If you're removing this overflow tube and you are only getting 1.5 quarts out, you are underfilling the transmission. Refer to the factory service manual. I have this, but won't post here due to copyright reasons. I outlined the process for properly filling the transmission
in my post here though, which is the procedure in the FSM.
Well, yes. You won't get all the old fluid out this way. But, do you
need to? Most people say no. I decided to do some math on this.
First off, system capacity is 7 quarts of fluid. With a drain you can get 3 quarts. Some have said closer to 2.5 quarts. If you get 3, then three drain and fill cycles will replace 81% of the fluid. If 2.5, it's 73% of the fluid.
But of more interest to me was considering the average number of miles on the fluid. If you have a van with 100k miles, and the fluid has never been changed, then you do a drain and fill and that takes 3 quarts of fluid, you've replaced 43% of the fluid, so 57% is old. So the average number of miles on the fluid after mixing is 57,000 miles. Wow! A single drain and fill has left you with fluid that's roughly equivalent to fluid that's 57,000 miles old (0.57*100,000 + 0.43*0).
So say you do your first transmission fluid around 100k miles, as many used Sienna buyers here will do. You do a simple drain and fill, and the fluid is more or less equivalent to 57,000 mile fluid now. You decide to do a simple drain and fill once every 30,000 miles, which also seems to be commonly recommended here. Now, once you reach 130k miles, your fluid has an "equivalent" 87,000 miles. This considerably less mileage than the fluid had when you did your first one at 100,000 miles! But now you do your next drain and fill, and end up with "equivalent" mileage of...49,600 miles. Wow! The fluid is so young now! Repeat this and you get the following graph:
View attachment 58792
What you'll note is that even doing this simple drain and fill once every 30,000 miles, starting at 100,000 miles, the average miles on your fluid
drastically drops.The average mileage of the fluid continues to drop over the next few change cycles, and by 310,000 miles, has evened out to somewhere around an average mileage on the transmission fluid of about 55,000 miles.
Now lets say we do a complete flush, without fluid mixing, every 100k miles. Well that's simple. Your average fluid mileage is simply going to be 50,000 miles. However, you'll end up spending a significant portion of the time with higher mileage fluid than the person who did the 30k simple drain and fill starting at 100k miles, because that person peaked at 100k miles (equivalent) and by their 3rd drain and fill at 160,000 miles they will never see above 80,000 miles (equivalent) on their transmission fluid again. Their equivalent average mileage is slightly higher, but on the flipside their fluid never gets as old either. Honestly after seeing the following graph, I'd prefer this, if comparing these two methodologies.
View attachment 58793
One last example. As an extreme, I heard one poster say "It takes me 15 minutes to do a drain/fill, so I just do one every oil change." Assuming a 10k oil change interval, that gets you very quickly to the point where your average transmission fluid mileage is just a bit over 18,000 miles.
View attachment 58795
Now, I note that
@greenskeeper did a complete flush at ~31k miles. More power to you. Very few would suggest that interval is needed. If you continue doing full flush every 30k miles, your average transmission fluid mileage will be 15,000. This does work out slightly below the 10k drain/fill of 18,000 miles. Roughly the same amount of fluid used in either case, and the fluid is never getting old at all, so it's more a tradeoff of a quicker and easier drain/fill every 10k or a slightly more complicated flush every 30k.
What if I got my van new? For new vehicles, just imagine the curves starting out at 0 and working up to the steady state valves shown above graphs by roughly your 7th drain/fill.
What if my van has 150 k miles before I do anything, and I want to use 30k drain/fill cycles? If your van had 150k miles, then doing a drain fill at 150, 160, and 170k miles will result in fluid that has less average miles at the 170k mark than the steady state 30k drain/fill cycles. So change 3x at 10k or less interval, then switch to a 30k interval.
Opinion: It's my personal opinion from looking at these graphs that a 30k drain/flush is probably adequate, especially given that the manual only recommends 60k in cases of heavy loads, towing, or car-top carriers, and does not specify it otherwise. Still, we know to never change the fluid is a foolish recommendation and will likely lead to a transmission failure. It does seem the often repeated advice here of a drain/fill once every 30k miles will be sufficient for a decently long transmission life. Transmissions will wear out in time, regardless of how often the fluid is changed. More isn't always better. For example, I changed my Honda Pilot engine oil when the variable mileage maintenance minder told me to, which for my mostly highway driving was always a tick over 10,000 miles. I had multiple used oil analysis done by Blackstone Labs, and it always came back that the oil was in great shape still, and I could actually run more miles if I wanted to. More interesting though, was their newsletter where they revealed that their data they had accumulated showed that vehicles with some of the shortest change intervals (like 2000 miles) had
more metals per mile (so more engine wear per mile) than cars with 6000 or 10,000 mile oil change intervals. While you'd need to statistically normalize this to filter out people that ran short changes but did lots of short trips with cold engines or lots of idling, it certainly is a strong finger backing up the "more is not always better" mantra.
Observation: Many here recommend not doing a flush, especially on older transmissions that may have never had any fluid change. While this seems to be largely based on what some say is a fallacy that flushing an old transmission kills it, the recommendation from those people to do multiple drain/flushes spaced apart and then proceed with something like one drain/flush, will, as the yellow line above shows, result in quickly reducing the average mileage of the fluid in your transmission.
Caveats: I could have messed something up with my math here, but I am reasonably confident it's correct. More importantly, "average mileage" as I'm using it here is not a 1-1 relationship when comparing to a drain/fill, as part of the fluid will be brand new, and part will be very old. Some portion as old as the vehicle is. Hence the term "average" is used. It is
an average, but perhaps not a strictly equivalent average. However, I feel it's decently accurate, and in any case doing literally any sort of fluid change at all puts you above probably 95% of car owners.